Iraq thinks ISIS is gone. The U.S. begs to differ.

With help from Lara Seligman, Joseph Gedeon and Connor O’Brien

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Iraqi Prime Minister MOHAMMED SHIA AL-SUDANI has one overarching message for Washington this week: ISIS just isn’t the threat it was a decade ago — and the bilateral relationship needs to adapt as a result.

Speaking with journalists at the Willard Intercontinental Hotel in Washington on Tuesday, Al-Sudani emphasized that point multiple times when asked about the future of the U.S.-Iraq relationship.

“ISIS is not a threat now to Iraq and most of its members are now hiding in the mountains in caves in the Sahara Desert, and our security forces continue to track them down,” he said. As a result, Baghdad plans to “reevaluate the schedule of ending or tapering out the mission” of the U.S.-led military coalition.

The Biden administration disagrees.

The State Department said in a statement to NatSec Daily that while ISIS has been “territorially defeated in Iraq” as a result of the work of Iraq’s military and the global coalition, “ISIS continues to pose a real threat, although diminished, in Iraq and the wider region.”

The competing assessments of the Islamist group’s strength are not a distinction without a difference, but a real reflection of the daylight between Baghdad and Washington as both sides attempt to define the future of U.S. troops in the country and the fate of a highly-successful international coalition.

The Biden administration has clear interests in maintaining troop presence in Iraq: They help prevent a possible resurgence of ISIS in the region and counter Iran’s influence, a mission that only becomes more significant as war between Israel and Tehran seems increasingly possible.

The current global coalition force is composed of some 2,500 American troops and hundreds of service members from other European countries who are stationed in Iraq to help the country fight the Islamic State.

Al-Sudani’s comments appear to mark a shift in his thoughts on the presence of U.S. troops in his country. Three months ago, POLITICO reported that the prime minister privately said he wants U.S. forces to stay in Iraq, although he previously announced that he would start the process of removing them from the country.

Al-Sudani’s comments also appear to represent a sizable shift in the Iraqi position on ISIS. Loyal NatSec Daily readers will remember that Iraqi Foreign Minister FUAD HUSSEIN said as recently as last month ISIS is resurging: “They reached Moscow, so that means they can reach anywhere,” he said following ISIS-K’s deadly attack in Russia last month, warning that more offshoots could be created.

There’s also a bipartisan worry that ISIS could return in the future. Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.) told NatSec Daily that he’s “glad they’re not the threat they once posed to Iraq” but “there’s still a network and they can revive pretty quickly if conditions are right.”

ANDREW COTÉ, a former Marine and senior defense official in the Trump administration, warns that ISIS is incredibly adaptable.

“As we saw with the evolution of the Islamic state, they can take multiple forms and continue to adapt to porous and deficient defensive organizational structure — whether that of the United States or her allies,” he told NatSec Daily.

The Inbox

BURNS’ HOT TAKE: CIA Director WILLIAM BURNS offered a stark warning to lawmakers on Capitol Hill: If you don’t send aid to Ukraine now, they could lose the war by the end of the year.

Speaking at an event at the George W. Bush Presidential Center today, Burns urged lawmakers to pass the supplemental that would dedicate billions to Ukraine’s war efforts.

“With the boost that would come from military assistance, both practically and psychologically, Ukrainians are entirely capable of holding their own through 2024 and puncturing Putin’s arrogant view that time is on his side,” he said.

But if that doesn’t make it through Congress, “the picture is a lot more dire,” he said. “There is a very real risk that the Ukrainians could lose on the battlefield by the end of 2024, or at least put Putin in a position where he could essentially dictate the terms of a political settlement.”

It’s perhaps the strongest warning from a senior administration official yet regarding the war, coming as officials in Kyiv warn that a looming Russian offensive in the summer — which would see massive waves of troops invading Ukraine — could overwhelm Kyiv’s struggling soldiers.

RAFAH TALKS: The White House and Israeli officials held another tense meeting about a potential Rafah operation today, a sign that Iran’s attack isn’t stopping talks over Israel’s conduct in its war against Hamas, our own ALEX WARD reports.

In the virtual session, senior leaders were expected to discuss how to target Hamas’ roughly 3,000 fighters in Rafah while protecting the city’s 1.4 million Palestinians, a senior Biden administration official and Israeli official told Alex.

Attendees included national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN, his Israeli counterpart, TZACHI HANEGBI, Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs RON DERMER and representatives from the Israel Defense Forces and Israeli security agencies. Pentagon officials Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy MELISSA DALTON, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Policy DAN SHAPIRO and Maj. Gen. JOSEPH MCGEE, joint staff vice director for strategy plans and policy, were also at the meeting, DOD Press Secretary Maj. Gen. PAT RYDER told our own LARA SELIGMAN.

The initial plan had been to hold the discussion in person in Washington, but Iran’s weekend attack postponed a trip.

‘LIMITED’ ISRAELI RESPONSE? U.S. officials are still waiting to find out whether and how Israel is going to respond to Iran’s attack.

They believe the response will be “limited in scope” — but only in the sense that it won’t be on par with the Iranian assault, which included hundreds of missiles and drones and was intended to cause mass casualties, a U.S. official told Lara.

One option is for Israel to continue its “shadow war” against Iran, for example taking out an Iranian military official in Syria, and publicly call that the retaliation, the official said. But that campaign has been going on for years, and such a response is not likely to spark a regional war.

Each day that goes by, the less likely it is that Israel will retaliate in a major way, the official said.

NOT ENOUGH AID: More aid has been entering Gaza since the U.S. called on Israel to ramp it up after the World Central Kitchen strike, but relief workers told The Wall Street Journal’s MARGHERITA STANCATI, ABEER AYYOUB and ANAT PELED that it’s not enough to prevent famine.

Freshly baked bread and affordable vegetables are now available in the northern part of the territory for the first time in months, and Israel opened up another crossing in the north directly from Israel to allow more trucks to enter.

But the problem “is not just about food,” ANDREA DE DOMENICO, who heads the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in Gaza and the West Bank, told WSJ. “It’s much bigger than simply bringing in flour and baking loaves of bread or pita. It is much more complex.”

About 185 aid trucks have entered Gaza from two southern crossings in the first half of April, up from 157 aid trucks in the two weeks prior, a U.N. tracker found.

NEW IRAN SANCTIONS: The Biden administration unveiled a slate of new sanctions against Iran in the wake of its strike against Israel over the weekend, our own MICHAEL STRATFORD reports.

The sanctions, issued in coordination with the U.K. government, target Iran’s production of drones, its steel industry and automotive companies that supply the country’s military. They come as the House mulls additional restrictions on Iranian oil sales as part of Speaker MIKE JOHNSON’s package of foreign aid bills.

As E&E News’ MANUEL QUIÑONES and ANDRES PICON report (for Pros!), the appropriations package unveiled yesterday incorporated the “Iran-China Energy Sanctions Act,” passed earlier this week that would make it harder for China to buy Iranian oil. It also included the “Stop Harboring Iranian Petroleum (SHIP) Act,” which would sanction people and institutions that help Iran trade its oil. That bill passed the full House in November.

BLINKEN’S BACKLOG: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN hasn’t acted on a months-old proposal by a State panel to disqualify multiple Israeli military and police units — accused of committing human rights abuses mostly in the West Bank before Oct. 7 — from receiving U.S. aid, ProPublica’s BRETT MURPHY reported Wednesday.

“This process is one that demands a careful and full review,” a State spokesperson told the outlet.

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Keystrokes

AI TARGETING IN GAZA: A leading Israeli civil rights group is asking for much more transparency over the Israel Defense Forces’ reliance on AI systems to identify and strike targets during their military campaign in Gaza.

In a Wednesday letter obtained by JOSEPH GEDEON, the Association for Civil Rights in Israel called on Israeli Attorney General GALI BAHARAV-MIARA to “establish with urgency an independent and external inspection team” to examine the IDF’s use of AI targeting algorithms.

The letter cites investigations alleging the IDF used a system called “Gospel” that leverages AI to rapidly generate lists of targets for aerial bombardment based on processing vast troves of intelligence data. One component dubbed “Lavender” is accused of wrongly identifying around 10 percent of people as Hamas operatives.

The IDF has declined to provide details on its AI targeting procedures to POLITICO in the past. But ACRI’s letter cites a June 2023 interview with Ynet in which former IDF chief of staff AVIV KOHAVI said there were “very severe dangers” in military AI and called for global regulation.

When asked for comment, the IDF pointed to a previous statement in which it said Israel’s military “outright rejects the claim regarding any policy to kill tens of thousands of people in their homes.”

As POLITICO reported in March, Israel is not among the 50 plus nations to sign on to a White House-led call for adopting principles around responsible military AI use that would include legal reviews to ensure compliance with international law.

TIKTOK IRE: Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle aired outrage today after a POLITICO report that the Chinese embassy lobbied members of Congress on legislation that would force the sale of TikTok by its Beijing-based parent company, our own ANTHONY ADRAGNA reports.

“These reports are no surprise. The Chinese Communist Party has a vested interest in keeping TikTok under its current ownership structure in the United States so it can influence and spy on Americans,” Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wis.), outgoing chair of the House’s select China panel, told Anthony.

He’s not alone among senior House committee members.

“I don’t like foreign governments, especially adversaries, interfering with our democratic process, but they do,” said Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas), chair of the House Foreign Relations Committee.

“TikTok has no connection with China, I thought, so why would they do that?” quipped Rep. JAKE AUCHINCLOSS (D-Mass.), a member of the China panel.

Read: CISA hosts ‘Super Bowl’ of cyber exercises to prepare for attacks against food sector by our own MAGGIE MILLER

The Complex

A BUNCH OF HOT AIR? Ukraine apparently has “war balloons,” which seem to be an innovation by the country’s beleaguered military as it explores new ways to fend off Russian troops.

News of the new tech came when Russia claimed it shot down five of the aerial objects that were equipped with a GPS module and carried explosives, The Associated Press reports. The balloons can carry a bigger payload than more common small drones and are reportedly more difficult to detect on radar. It also wasn’t clear if the balloons were filled with helium, hot air or some other substance.

On the Hill

DEMS WAIT AND SEE: House Democrats are waiting to see how Speaker Johnson’s foreign aid package fairs as the Rules Committee debates the bills, our own NICHOLAS WU, JENNIFER SCHOLTES and DANIELLA DIAZ report.

Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES’ message to the morning caucus meeting: Stay united and frosty on the foreign aid package. He gave no marching orders on exactly what that would require from Democrats. Their votes will almost certainly be needed to get it over the finish line.

He also made the case to lawmakers that its components were essentially the same as the Senate-passed foreign aid bill, according to multiple people in the room. And the caucus applauded when they were told the fourth part of the package, including a bill potentially restricting TikTok and beefing up sanctions on Iran, was free of border provisions.

Read: Space lasers, abortion and Putin’s envoy: Lawmakers troll using foreign aid bills Anthony also reports

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — MAKE AN INDO-PACIFIC STRATEGY: Sens. CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO (D-Nev.) and JONI ERNST (R-Iowa) introduced a bill to strengthen the United States’’ strategic partnerships with Pacific Island nations and counter China’s influence in the region.

The Pacific Partnership Act would require Biden to create a detailed “Strategy for Pacific Partnership” that outlines U.S. involvement in the Indo-Pacific and suggest efforts to combat regional challenges, including natural disasters, security threats and economic development.

“By strengthening coordination with the Pacific Islands through this bipartisan legislation, we can counter the CCP’s malign influence and counter their actions to protect our own security,” Ernst told NatSec Daily.

China’s expanding influence in the region has caused concern among conservatives and progressives alike, making it likely that the bipartisan bill would gain support if brought up.

Broadsides

RUSSIAN BOMB PLOT: German authorities detained two German-Russian nationals suspected of targeting U.S. military sites in the country for potential bombings, our own PIERRE EMMANUEL NGENDAKUMANA reports.

The alleged plan was “intended to undermine the German military support to Ukraine in its war against Russia,” the German federal prosecutor’s office said in a statement.

One of the suspects prepared to commit explosive and arson attacks, especially on military infrastructure and industrial sites in Germany, including on facilities of the U.S. forces, German officials said. This suspect was in contact with a person who is connected to the Russian secret service.

POLISH PLOT: Speaking of sleuthing, prosecutors announced today that a Polish man was arrested after he was accused of being prepared to help Russia assassinate Ukranian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, the AP reports.

What to Read

— VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA, POLITICO: Why DONALD TRUMP ‘hates Ukraine’

— EOIN DREA, Foreign Policy: Washington should squeeze Europe like it’s 1945

— STEPHEN KOTKIN, Foreign Affairs: The five futures of Russia

Transitions

— Center for a New American Security and the Japan Institute for International Affairs, 1:30 a.m.: Cybersecurity in the Indo-Pacific: Japan

— George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 8 a.m.: Virtual second annual Petrach Conference on Ukraine

— Women’s Foreign Policy Group and the National Democratic Institute, 9 a.m.: Ukraine: democracy’s front line

— U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 9:30 a.m.: China and the Middle East

— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: Modernizing army software acquisition

— Atlantic Council, 2:30 p.m.: A discussion with Iraqi Prime Minister AL-SUDANI on building a stronger relationship with the United States

— Council on Foreign Relations and the Peterson Institute for International Economics, 3 p.m.: Blueprints for renewal: reconstructing Ukraine

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who we still see as a threat to this newsletter.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who led the global coalition in response to Heidi.