Hey readers,
I got to talk to someone truly unique this week: Sophie Howe, the Future Generations Commissioner of Wales. For the past six years, it’s been her job to call out policymakers when they’re on the verge of making a decision that might harm people in the long run. It’s a job that exists because Wales in 2015 passed the Well-being of Future Generations Act, which sets out long-term goals and obligates public institutions to work toward them.
It's part of a growing, global movement to protect future generations. Sweden introduced a Ministry of the Future in 2014, Scotland decided to appoint a future generations commissioner in 2021, and the United Arab Emirates made a similar commitment to future generations.
In a recent UN report, "Our Common Agenda," Secretary-General António Guterres set out a series of recommendations on protecting the people of the future. He called for the appointment of a UN Special Envoy for Future Generations, as well as a Declaration for Future Generations, which would commit member states to creating their own governance mechanisms for safeguarding long-term well-being.
Howe regularly offers input to other governments and the UN about the best way to shepherd forward this movement, since she’s one of the few people who actually has concrete experience putting it into practice. We discussed her experience in a wide-ranging conversation, which I’ve condensed a lot for this newsletter — but check out the Vox site in a few days for a fuller version!
Sigal Samuel
How exactly do you go about ensuring that government bodies think about the long-term impact of their decisions? What’s a typical day like for you?
Sophie Howe
The law sets out our long-term well-being goals, and all our public institutions have these duties to work towards achieving those goals. So my job is to monitor and assess how well they're doing that. And then also to provide advice and support to help them do that.
I look at a lot of evidence about future trends and scenarios, and try to work out what are the big issues that future generations face that the government should be taking action on now. I put forward research on things like, what do we need to do not just to deal with inequality now, but what are the future trends and scenarios that could exacerbate inequality — and how do we need to be acting now to stop that? I take that sort of evidence to government.
And then there's a lot of me calling out the madness, which is posing these questions: Why are you doing that? Can you explain to me how you've applied the interests of future generations to that decision?
Sigal Samuel
Has your calling-out actually led to policy change?
Sophie Howe
One example where my recommendations made a significant impact was with all these changes to our transport policy, starting with the canceling of this big road that was going to be built in Wales. It was going to use all of the government's borrowing capacity to build this stretch of motorway. I intervened and asked them to demonstrate to me how that was aligned with the Future Generations Act and with the goal of a more equal Wales. You say that you’re a government focused on tackling poverty and yet 25 percent of the lowest-income families in this region don't own a car, so why are you spending all the borrowing capacity on a scheme which does not benefit them?
Calling out the madness and saying this is a terrible idea and the Welsh government needs to explain themselves — that was really effective. Not only did they cancel that road-building program, we then completely reformed the whole transport strategy for the whole of Wales, and we've shifted our infrastructure spending.
Sigal Samuel
When you think about your work for future generations, how are you thinking about your aims? Is it to maximize the potential range of opportunities for future generations, which could mean trying to maximize economic growth? Or is it to ensure that the present world remains intact for them, which could mean environmental conservation? If it’s both, what do you do when there are trade-offs?
Sophie Howe
The seven well-being goals in the Future Generations Act set out the vision for the Wales that we want, and it was devised in conversation with the citizens of Wales. It says that where there are those conflicts, find the things that make the biggest positive contribution across all the goals.
So in that example of the road — if your primary mission is to improve the economy, then perhaps building a big road might be a good short-term solution. However, I don’t just have a duty to improve the economy. I have a duty to improve all of these pillars of well-being. We’re looking to improve health, to address socioeconomic disadvantage, to have ecological resilience… So the mission is to do the best we can across all of our long-term goals [when aggregated].
Sigal Samuel
When some people talk about the long term, they’re thinking 50 years from now, and other people are thinking 1 million years from now. What are your thoughts on the broader longtermism movement that's associated with effective altruism, which tends to think about ensuring the very far future of humanity?
Sophie Howe
In our case, we’re generally talking about planning with the next 25 years in mind, which is obviously nowhere near the millions of years that some people are talking about. But considering that the public sector often works from year to year, that's quite an achievement for them. And you have to bring it back to something people can understand, because the further you go into the future, the more disconnected people become — and also the less valid any of your scenarios and assumptions are.
Sigal Samuel
Because you're just not sure what the future holds and you can't predict the outcomes of your decisions?
Sophie Howe
Yes. If we could just get people to think to the next generation or the generation beyond that, that would be significant progress… I would say it’s a stepping stone.
Sigal Samuel
One more question. Do you like your job or is it frustrating?
Sophie Howe
I absolutely love it. I tear my hair out regularly and feel utterly frustrated. And I wish that progress was faster. But that's why I invest so much time in the more global movement around [long-term thinking] as well. Because I think if that becomes the norm across the world, that is when it becomes potentially transformational.
—Sigal Samuel
Questions? Comments? Email us at futureperfect@vox.com or find me on Twitter at @SigalSamuel. And if you want to recommend this newsletter to your friends or colleagues, tell them to sign up at vox.com/future-perfect-newsletter.
