Voters in Germany maintained a few global trends this past weekend: They kicked out incumbents, their youth moved to the right, and they delivered another surprise. Germany’s radical, anti-immigrant party (Alternative für Deutschland, or AfD) finished second, likely boosted by LGBTQ voters.
The rightward shift of gay, lesbian, and bisexual voters is a dynamic playing out across western Europe. In the UK, France, and now Germany, gay voters or their allies are backing far-right or nativist political parties at growing rates.
That queer shift to the right doesn’t seem to be materializing in the United States, however. During the 2024 election, LGBTQ voters actually got more Democratic than in 2020.
What explains this gulf, especially as so many other global political trends replicate themselves in the US?
Two things:
1) Immigration as a wedge issue
Far-right parties in France and Germany have been nearly single-mindedly focused on tougher policies toward migrants and refugees, suspicion of Islam in particular, opposition to European Union integration, and a reclamation of native or national identity. The UK’s Conservative party has embraced many of these nativist ideals as well.
British researcher Jesse Grainger, of King’s College London, suggests this focus on immigration and nativism may be key to understanding LGBTQ voters’ growing support for the far-right.
“Cultural studies have also theorised that pro-LGBT attitudes may be increasing because of immigration,” he writes, “as progressive LGBT+ values can be weaponised as a means of differentiating the native liberal population from the backward immigrant population — constructing a tolerant vs intolerant binary.”
In other words, European far-right political parties have created various binaries around identity, security and public safety that place migrants and queer people at odds. And queer voters frustrated with the status quo have a welcome home in newer or rehabilitated far-right parties, particularly in France and Germany.
2) The US has a two-party system
The US really only has two parties, and while both started off as hostile to gay rights, the Democratic Party has been quicker to tolerate, accept, and champion LGBTQ people.
The Republican Party has been much more hostile. That’s been particularly true during the last five years, which have featured GOP fearmongering around trans athletes and bathrooms, “grooming,” and “Don’t Say Gay” legislation.
Queer people may be turned off from any kind of ideological or policy pitch from Republicans who have largely turned toward bigoted, discriminatory, or hostile speech and policy. And those that do sour on the GOP have only two real options: Join the Democrats or ignore the political process completely.
Some of American LGBTQ voters’ liberalism can also be explained by demographics. In the US, LGBTQ people skew younger and female, a part of the electorate that is more likely to hold more liberal views to begin with.
And a small but growing share of Gen Z in particular identifies as transgender — meaning the Republican Party’s turn against trans people and trans rights is also likely to turn off potential future voters who are still solidifying their ideological and partisan identities.
Of course, none of these dynamics are set in stone. But for now, the prospect of a growing right-wing LGBTQ movement in the US seems to face many hurdles.
