Shortly after the German election results came in, Friedrich Merz — the man who is likely to be the country’s next leader — outlined a vision for a self-reliant Europe that doesn’t depend on the US for help. He’s not the only EU leader making statements like that of late. What’s behind that?
President Donald Trump's comments from last week on Ukraine and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy created an explosion in Europe. European leaders realize that they may be alone in defending Ukraine, and they need to do that at all costs, given what the Russian threat to them would be if Ukraine falls.
Also, Trump’s discussion about potential tariffs creates big economic risks — especially because Europe’s economy is already not doing super well.
A more inward looking US means that Europe needs to come together and be more independent economically and defensively.
Is the vision Merz paints feasible?
The European Union needs to come together, and that's been a challenge. There are so many different member countries in the European Union, each with diverging interests. Hungary has completely different policies toward Russia than France or Germany. It will be really hard to unite behind a common EU policy at this point, given the differences.
I do think the EU will find a way, as the threats made by President Trump become even more real, whether the tariffs come in, or Russia wins the war and controls Ukrainian territory. All those things are going to change the dynamics in Europe, and force countries to overcome these challenges. In times of crisis, alliances can come together very quickly.
I would say we’re most likely to see Europe in closer cooperation with the UK when it comes to defense and security.
When they were part of the EU, the UK was one of the biggest countries in terms of the European Union's budget, and in terms of defense spending. I don't think that we’ll see the UK push to regain EU membership, but closer cooperation when it comes to defense and security is something that Europe needs, to the point where you might not even see it happen within the European Union framework, but in closer ties between the UK, France, and Germany.
A lot depends on what's going to happen within Germany, which faces two big challenges against this Merz plan to become more independent.
One, Merz’s party didn’t win an outright majority in last weekend’s elections. That means he needs to work with another party to make things happen. That really limits the abilities of European countries to take any action, regardless of what Germany’s leader says that they should do.
The second thing that limits them internally is a constitutional amendment that restricts Germany’s annual structural deficits. That limits the government's ability to respond flexibly to economic downturns, but also, to engage in the kind of defense spending required for Germany to become independent defensively.
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